The Northern Forest is maintained mostly by natural regeneration, but assisted migration may be required as climate changes. However, our ability to predict tree species’ establishment under changing climate in this complex mountainous region is still rudimentary. While the regeneration of the boreal cold-tolerant conifers species (red spruce, balsam fir) appears to be shifting upslope, this is not true for the dominant temperate deciduous species (sugar maple, American beech). Although edaphic factors (soil pH, mycorrhizae) explain some of this deciduous species’ ‘failure to migrate’, an empirical model is needed to integrate fine- scale seedling establishment with intermediate-scale seed dispersal to better understand tree regeneration under changing climate.

We propose to develop species regeneration models by integrating field and greenhouse experiments with field observations across a large, well- established network of sites spanning all four U.S. states containing Northern Forest (previously funded by NSRC and NSF awards to the lead PI). We will quantify how regeneration of the four dominant species can be limited by (1) seed dispersal and (2) seedling establishment by conducting (a) seed addition experiments on plots in the network and (b) seedling establishment experiments in greenhouse and field settings. Our models will provide quantitative guidelines on target densities and site conditions (preparation) for adaptive forest management and conservation using assisted migration along regional climate-edaphic gradients. The project will train an early-career (post-doctoral) scientist, a graduate student, and several undergraduates. Our collaborators will help facilitate workshops to disseminate project findings to appropriate stakeholder groups across the region.

Prodcuts:

Kiel, N. G., J. C. Tourville, J. W. Wason,, & M. Dovciak. 2026. Conspecific adult dominance interacts with microsite factors to influence forest regeneration patterns across elevation. Journal of Biogeography 53 (1), e70153. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70153. 

Kiel, N. G., J. C. Tourville, J. W. Wason, and M. Dovciak. 2025. Tree seedling abundance mediated by local neighborhood effects and microsite conditions ver 1. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/a380a7a53f1954d6b4735b2103531db6

Kiel, N. G., J. C. Tourville, J. W. Wason, and M. Dovciak. 2025. Overstory tree neighborhood effects interact with microsite factors to impede or facilitate upslope range shifts. Poster presentation. Annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Baltimore, Maryland, August 10-15.

Wehner, D. W. 2026. An uphill battle: seed dispersal and mycorrhizal constraints on the climate-driven upslope migration of tree species in the northeastern U.S. Mitchelliana 37(1):11-13.

Invited Presentations:

Kiel, N. G. 2025. Slow vs. abrupt pathways of climate-driven forest change. Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York. 

Kiel, N. G. 2025. Slow vs. abrupt pathways of climate-driven forest change. Department of Biology, SUNY Geneseo, Geneseo, New York.  

Kiel, N. G. 2025. Slow vs. abrupt pathways of climate-driven forest change. Biology Department, Utica University, Utica, New York.

Kiel, N. G. 2025. Slow vs. abrupt pathways of climate-driven forest change. Department of Biology, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York.

Kiel, N. G. 2025. Slow vs. abrupt pathways of climate-driven forest change. Section of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, New York.

Student Involvement:

Danny Wehner, MS
Jenna Meyer, MS
Tee Atwater, BS